Middle Class! Unite!

Charles Kenny observes that the world is growing wealthy: “The last 10 years have seen developing countries grow far more rapidly than high-income countries, closing the gap in average incomes. Economist Arvind Subramanian estimates that China in 2030 will be about as rich as the whole European Union today and that Brazil won’t be far behind, clocking in at a GDP per capita of around $31,000. Indonesia, he reckons, will see a GDP per capita of $23,000 – about the same as tech powerhouse South Korea today.

“Put simply, this means that within the space of hardly a generation, a good chunk of the world will soon be rich, or at least solidly middle class. According to forecasts I’ve developed with my Center for Global Development colleague Sarah Dykstra, about 16 percent of the Earth’s population lives in countries rich enough to be labeled ‘high income’ by the World Bank. If growth rates continue as they have in the past decade, 41 percent of the world’s people will find themselves in the ‘high income’ bracket by 2030.”

He states the obvious: “the communist revolutions of the first half of the 20th century proved far, far worse for living standards than the well-regulated markets of the latter half.”

With workers entering the global middle class by the millions, it’s not exactly a proletarian revolution, but Kenny thinks that Marx’s exhortation to workers of the world is still relevant. The rising middle class will “pressure governments to collaborate to ensure that their sweat and blood don’t excessively enrich a tiny, global capitalist elite, but are spread more widely. They’ll work to shut down tax havens where the world’s plutocrats hide their earnings, and they’ll advocate for treaties to prevent a ‘race to the bottom’ in labor regulations and tax rates designed to attract companies. And they’ll push to ensure it isn’t just the world’s richest who benefit from a global lifestyle – by striving to open up free movement of labor for all, not just within countries but among them.”

It’s a middle class revolution, promising because, as Kenny says “the middle class has never been the most ardent of revolutionaries – only the most effective.”