Two Big Factors

So I was watching William Kristol and he said that this Romney ad on Medicare shows that the Romney campaign has embraced one “big fact.” The Medicare cuts in Obamacare have made Obama vulnerable on both the Medicare issue and the broader health care issue (and it distinguishes Obamacare from Romneycare.)

Yeah, that is true, but it is only half the story. The other big fact is that in his last budget, Obama has committed to restraining Medicare spending growth to GDP+.5%. This is the same amount as in the last Ryan budget. This takes “cutting” Medicare (as such) off the table AS LONG AS ROMNEY-RYAN GETS THEIR MESSAGE OUT. Yes, I’m shouting. Obama has the much tougher job of explaining why, at an equal level of funding, Ryan-Wyden-style premium support is so much worse than having a central board cut provider payments across-the-board. The key is that Romney-Ryan has to get their message out about how (and how much) Obama plans to cut Medicare and how Ryan-Wyden-style reform works. They almost can’t overinvest in such a strategy and will very likely under invest.