Tuesday Morning

1. It will be a victory for Romney if he gets significantly more than 30% of the vote in AL or MS. I have my doubts.

2. Sean Trende is explaining on RCP than in the Republican primaries DEMOGRAPHY is trumping MOMENTUM. I could quibble with the details of Sean’s social science, but the basic point is true enough. Romney rules, generally, where votes are affluent, highly educated, and nonevangelical. Santorum’s strength is evangelicals, especially in rural areas. Sean might have added that Catholics have been voting for Romney over Santorum. Liberal Catholics, you might say! But liberal Catholics don’t vote in big numbers in Republican primaries. Catholics in general experience a bit of the cringe factor when Rick speaks. I hear some Mormons have the same experience when Mitt speaks, but they’re still 90% loyal to him.

3. The rural, evangelical, conservative objection to Romney has less to do with his religion than you might think (studies back me up). The Tea Party kind of line remains that Obamacare is a fundamental threat to our freedom, and that a new birth of freedom is possible with the right kind of inspirational Republican candidate. John in the thread below and even the more critical Pete are right that many Partiers find the right kind of vision thing in Santorum’s words. And they think of Romney as fatally compromised by Obamacare, his endorsement of the mandate, and so forth. The evangelicals also want their candidate to be loud and proud on the social issues, and so they sort of admire Rick’s lack of prudence on that front. I agree with John that reasonable people can disagree over which of them would be the stronger candidate against the president. Certainly they have different strengths and weaknesses.