The Post-Democratic Future

A significant decline in fertility among the native-born combined with mass migration transforms a society. The green transition seeks to remake the economy of the developed world on a scale that would make Stalin blush. If someone had told me thirty years ago that the Best and the Brightest (as well as the Righteous and the Pious) were willing to embark on both projects at once, I’d have called that person mad. The trajectory of the West is all the more insane because these disruptive enterprises are taking place against the background of the severe erosion of social capital. Faith and family no longer provide reliable anchors. Social media short-circuit the old authorities that once formed public opinion. Anxiety and addiction are on the rise. Trust and steady habits of thrift and self-reliance are waning. Fewer forces exist to stabilize the body politic at a time when we’re certain to need them.

I’m not saying that we’re heading toward a populist uprising, the electoral success of Wilders and others notwithstanding. We are living in a paradoxical moment. Polling suggests widespread distrust of established institutions and dissatisfaction with the status quo. This unhappiness can take radical forms. Some on the left speak of “settler colonialism,” a notion that, like the 1619 Project, makes the United States a country without moral legitimacy. Some on the right argue that the “deep state” and other gears in the machine of governance are so thoroughly captive to progressive dogma and technocratic interests that we must contemplate the possibility of a “Red Caesar” who will restore popular control.

Yet for all the uproar, our politics remains stuck in deep ruts, epitomized by the prospect of another contest between Trump and Biden. There are legal tools that can be used to block populists. (Wilders has been prosecuted several times; in Germany, Alternative für Deutschland is under investigation and may be declared an illegal party; the day may come when the European Court of Human Rights declares unwanted election results a violation of human rights.) The technological methods of social control grow more powerful and more invisible—and more appealing to Western elites. During the pandemic, the general population submitted to radical measures dictated by technocrats, and they did so long after it was evident that these measures were as foolish as they were futile. And then there’s the demographic fact that very low fertility rates mean that the ranks of angry young men, the traditional bearers of pitchforks and other instruments of populist violence, are thin, and those who exist are numbed by drugs and demoralized by pornography. Electoral upsets are likely, but violent uprisings against the status quo are not. People seem content to register their anger in the polling booth rather than march in the streets. (The riots in Dublin in late November may indicate that I underestimate the likelihood of violence.)

Though I cannot predict future events, I’m reasonably confident that the next few years will not be easy. Today’s power elite is characterized by a curious combination of arrogance and fecklessness. The arrogance hides behind claims of necessity (We have only a few years left to avoid climate catastrophe!), as our leadership class plunges ahead with a massive transformation of the global economy. The fecklessness is disguised as idealism (Wir schaffen das!), which puts the sheen of righteousness on our elite’s failure to address the factors driving disruptive demographic change. (Space does not allow me to address the West’s obeisance to the Rainbow Reich and its ideology of infertility, a connection recognized by the Hungarian government, which has thereby brought upon itself the unending opprobrium of all the Good People in Brussels and Washington.)

This combination of self-sure technocracy and cowardly leadership is likely to cause Western elites to redouble their commitments to the green transition and multiculturalism, even as conditions worsen. Emergency after emergency will be declared. (See Russell A. Berman, “State of Emergency,” June/July 2022.) Dissent will be squelched, as was done during the Covid lockdowns. If past performance is any indication, Rome will support these measures, and progressive Christians will cheer them as paving the way for the realization of the Sermon on the Mount.

In my estimation, the West is poised to make a very different kind of transition than the one John Kerry urges upon us. This transition will take us into the post-democratic age in which men shorn of all belonging tremble before the uncertainties of life and an establishment of managers and therapists promises them safety, security, and affirmation, if they will but submit. We’re already partway to that destination. (See Matthew B. Crawford, “The Rise of Antihumanism,” August/September 2023.)

I don’t wish to demoralize readers. In the first place, I could be wrong in my assessments of demographic change and the green transition. And perhaps populist politicians will succeed in winning elections and provide sane, responsible leadership. I do not pretend to be a prophet. Moreover, even if I am correct, we need to remember that the Lord never promised auspicious economic, cultural, or political circumstances. Rather, he created and sustains a world that is resplendent with a beauty that transcends our foibles and pratfalls. And he gave us hearts capable of great loves that both uplift and console.