Some Quick Thoughts That Might Be Depressing Or Cheering

1.  If Romney is “doomed” (in the sense that he will lose regardless of whatever strategy he employs or whatever gaffes he does or doesn’t make), then it will be because the public perceived the economy to be improving enough that the marginal voters(s) decided that Obama is basically doing a good job.  Romney probably isn’t going to win over a voter who approves of Obama’s job performance.  Another, hypothetical, Republican candidate might or might not have been able to win over a tiny number of Obama-approvers and thereby win an election where Obama has 51% job approval, but it isn’t going to be Romney. But if Obama’s job approval is under 50% (even just a little under), then Romney has a legit shot.

2.  I’m not sweating the head-to-head matchups.  Yet.  Obama’s RCP job approval average is under 49% and the two most recent polls show him at 48% and 45%.  We have this thing where, when Obama’s polls are on the upswing, people focus on the polls that show him highest and take those as the new reality.  So when his average is in the high 40s people focus on the poll or two that shows him in the low 50s.  When Obama’s RCP average dips to the mid 40s people focus on the poll or two that shows him in the low 40s.  The reality is that Obama’s approval ratings, when averaged across the polls, have him in a very narrow range.

3.  Romney is a mediocre candidate.  Conservatives don’t trust him.  I’m not sure moderate voters look at him with any kind of enthusiasm.  But look at the alternatives.  Does anybody wish we were seeing Rick Santorum having biweekly culture war-related meltdowns for the next six and a half months?  A Gingrich general election candidacy would have been some combination of a hostile satire of conservatism and a horror movie.  Pretty much any fair minded person can look at Romney and see a smart, informed on public issues, managerially competent, personally decent man with a record of executive experience.  That’s something.  I think that there might have been Republican candidates who would have been better suited to the moment as a matter of both politics and policy, but I have two reservations:

a)  They chose not to run.

b)  We don’t actually know how they would have done in the heat of a presidential election.

4.  If the Supreme Court strikes down the mandate and leaves the rest of the law in place, then Romney will have the obvious argument that the rump law will drive up health insurance premiums.  If the Supreme Court strikes down more of the law, then Romney can argue that our constitutional law professor President spent much of his energy, during economic hard times, fighting for an unpopular and unconstitutional law that we don’t even have anymore.  All that and high gas prices too.