Social Science Prediction

I’m getting more doubtful that Newt get stopped. Christmas has already caused a bit of a lull in the campaigning. Iowa cacuses right after the New Year. Meanwhile, Romney’s situation is eroding in a way that seems unfixable. If Newt does has an unexploited weakness, it’s, as we’ve said before, his “consulting” for Freddie and others for really big bucks as a shill for disastrous policies he doesn’t really believe in. Everything else is well known and being factored in. The turn to Newt, in a way, is the ultimate antiestablishment move by the voters. No one with any sense or experience thinks he’d be even a passable president.

So in the spirit of Mr. Ceaser below: I say that Newt has 4 chances in 10 of being the nominee, Romney 3, all others 2, Paul 1. With a heavy heart I add that Obama could probably take them all except someone who’s not Santorum from the all others category.

The scenario in which someone gets in the race late would have be a Cain-like implosion by Newt after he does well in the early contests, with Romney discredited by poor showings. Newt has to drop out and his delegates become free to vote for someone else. Not inconceivable.