With Kate and Gene throwing money around in the thread of the post below, I decided really to turn to the studies to figure out whether or not Romney is losing. He is. If the election were held tomorrow, it is very likely he would lose most of the swing states. The popular vote would be fairly close, but Obama’s electoral college win would be comfortable, if not exactly a landslide.
The case on Kate’s side is that Romney should be winning or at least doing considerably better, if satisfaction with the president’s performance, confidence in the country’s future, and various economic factors were the keys. Romney’s problem is largely personal. And Obama has done well in keeping the focus on Romney’s unattractive features. Meanwhile, Mitt failed to be statesmanlike in his world tour, is doing nothing to fend off the perception that he’s a shifty, stingy rich guy who outsources American jobs and won’t even let us see his tax forms, and is not saying anything edifying to us all or challenging to the president.
Some Republicans say this election will be like 1980, when Reagan gained the confidence of Americans as a genial, reasonable guy and support for the incompetent incumbent collapsed in the last couple weeks of the campaign.
But Democrats point to 2004: Bush got reelected because Kerry seemed a bit strange, stiff, and ploddingly unattractive. I gotta to say that as of now Romney seems more like Kerry than Reagan.
Cautious Romney, to repeat, can’t win, without the intervention of unpredicted events.
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