Re: French Women Surge Ahead

A reader just pointed out that the article R.R. Reno mentions in his recent post neglects the possibility that many of these new French mothers are (mostly Muslim) North African immigrants.

The article does say that Frenchwomen are starting to have children later (at age 30) on average, and that older mothers account for a growing proportion of births. That suggests, as Reno says, that many women who didn’t have children in their twenties are now having them in their thirties (and odds are these aren’t mainly North African women). But it’s not clear that they are the main cause of the “baby boom.”

It may be that the long-term trend for the majority population (mostly white and at least residually Catholic) is a continued decline or plateau in birthrate, with most women having babies after age 30, if at all (though it’s possible that immigrant women who keep having babies until menopause have contributed to the spike among older women, too). Meanwhile, the overall birthrate is being pushed up by the rapidly growing immigrant communities.

If this is the case it could be good news or bad news. It all depends on how well these immigrants assimilate over the next couple of decades.