Keeping Expectations In Check

I’ve read several conservatives who argue that Paul Ryan will “will wipe the floor with Vice President Joe Biden in their one debate in October.”  I don’t think that is a realistic assumption.  Ryan has worked very hard to make himself expert on one (important) class of issues.  If the debate between Biden and Ryan was going to be entirely about health care and entitlement policy, then Biden would have a very long night.  But that won’t be the format.  Each candidate is going to have a few minutes to talk about one issue, and the discussion will move on to something else.  A combination of partisanship, folksiness, and a sense of the dynamics of public opinion on a given issue go a long way here.  Don’t underestimate Biden.  I don’t care what stupid or vile comments he makes between now and the debate.  Unless Biden is badly suffering from a medical issue, then Biden will show up to play during the debate.  I see no reason to assume that Ryan’s answers on Afghanistan (to give one example) will be more satisfying to the median voter than whatever  Biden has to say.

Performing in the kind of debate he is going to have with Biden isn’t Ryan’s advantage over others than Romney could have chosen for his running mate.  Pawlenty would have fluently repeated the talking points the Romney team gave him on any given issue.  Ryan might be a little better than Pawlenty would have been, but if conservatives raise expectations for Ryan’s performance too high, then even an okay Ryan performance might seem like a big Biden win.  Rob Portman has played the Democratic presidential nominee during debate prep for the Republican candidate in 2000, 2004, and 2008.  Portman probably would have been somewhat better for this one task.

That doesn’t mean Ryan won’t “win” his debate with Biden, and Ryan does have major advantages over Pawlenty and Portman.  But let’s do Ryan a favor by keeping our confidence in check and having a healthy respect for the ability (if not the decency) of his likely debate opponent.