1. Santorum dropped out at exactly the right time. The race was clearly over. People had stopped paying attention. And Romney was getting more and more ahead in the daily polls. Rick had to wait until after Wisconsin, just to be sure it would be a repeat of Michigan, Ohio, and Illinois. Pete is right about the might have beens. And the threader is equally right about Pawlenty choking.
2. So there’s a lot to worry about. Romney’s negatives are high. He’s fading in the various tracking polls. More and more experts are assuming that the president will be reelected.
3. My own view (and a pretty common view) is that the race will tighten, Romney’s campaign will match Obama’s in competence, and the election will be fairly close.
4. But THE ENTHUSIASM GAP from which Republicans hope to benefit has disappeared. Neither the president nor the governor generate much enthusiasm at this point. And the enthusiasm that flows from animosity toward the president—the energy of THE TEA PARTY—has ebbed. A lot will depend on which candidate does better in rousing up the disaffected base. That might, in fact, be more important that the proverbial appealing to independents, the swing voters etc.
5. It will be interesting to see the extent to which the Supreme Court might take the Obamacare issue off the table. One big argument for defeating the president (or not settling—in the manner suggested by George Will—for divided government) is the disaster that would be the full implementation of all the dimensions of “affordable care.” But if the Court compels a “do over,” that concern becomes less urgent.
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