Divided Government—Part II

So I thought I’d link the astute Pete S.’s analysis on why Obama will probably prevail in 2012, even if the economy doesn’t rebound in some Reaganesque way. Pete, ever the statesman, adds that the Republicans could still win with a persuasive message, an articulate, attractive, and able candidate, and a superior ground game. A lot of “ifs” there, of course.

The best book on public policy this year, of course, is William Voegeli’s NEVER ENOUGH. He describes a moment in Clinton’s second term when the president and Speaker Gingrich “were able to agree on a framework for changing Social Security and Medicare because of an opportunity, the surprising appearance of federal budget surpluses in Clinton’s second term.” The moment quickly passed, of course, because of the revelation of the president’s creation of unprecedented opportunities for service for an intern and Gingrich’s need to feign outrage at the revelation.

Could there be such a moment in Obama’s presidency? Is he as smart and flexible as the man from Hope? Is there a Republican leader in Congress of the pay grade (and flexibility) of Newt in his prime? The opportunity, of course, won’t be a surprising surplus. But maybe a dangerously intractable deficit—combined with undeniable and irreversible demographic trends—might provide a similar opportunity for trans-partisan statesmanship and genuinely intelligent compromise. Voegeli’s book provides some guidance for such compromise—which begins with the insight that the entitlements of the welfare state are neither unconstitutional nor an inalienable right.