A Credible Prediction

Thanks to CJ for giving us the link to the Bessette/Pitney textbook prediction. Basically: A narrow Obama victory both popular and electoral, with the not-that-good possibility of a Romney PA victory tipping the balance the other way. I won’t, of course, be making any predictions myself.

Corey is also right in the thread to remind us that 2012 is sort of the mean between 2008 and 2010, with turnout, enthusiasm, and all that pointing in the direction of something close to a tie. And as Pete has reminded us, Obama is personally polling a little too well and the economy might not be quite bad enough (or perceived to be bad enough) in the key places for any Romney supporter to be particularly optimistic (or, let’s add, unduly pessimistic). So I remain unpersuaded by “the polls are just wrong” thesis. And so probably (not certainly) Obama wins a majority of the battleground states.

But the big news is the Chris Christie has finally gotten to talk to and be hugged by Springsteen. No wonder he didn’t have time to get over to Romney’s rally 20 minutes away.