The various studies show we have a three or even four-way tie in Iowa. There’s only one study that shows a Paul surge. But it might really be right, especially because only his supporters are enthusiastic at this point. Still, his ceiling is doubtless about 20%. Romney seems surge-proof. Cain’s descent is very gradual, although seemingly irreversible. The web is full of explanations of why the Gingrich surge can’t last. I encourage Jim Ceaser to explain once again why another candidate might still emerge, because I have to admit I don’t see it. Isn’t there anyone RESPONSIBLE for this party out there?
