Right (I Think), For The Wrong Reasons (Probably)

David Frum thinks that Bobby Jindal would be a better vice presidential candidate than Marco Rubio.  So do I, but I can’t endorse Frum’s reasoning.  Frum writes that Republicans are better off going after Asian-American voters with Jindal as VP than going after Latino voters with Rubio as VP.  I think that Jindal and Rubio are better contrasted based on who is better prepared to be President, who has more political accomplishments and who would be better at helping Romney sell his message.  I think Jindal wins on all of those counts (though I can see grounds for reasonable disagreement on the last one.)

I also think Frum’s analysis of the ethnic politics of Jindal and Rubio is mistaken and overstated.  Take a look at the 2004 and 2008 exit polls.  The results for Latinos and Asians look very similar.  The Republicans won over 40% of both groups in 2004 and between 31%-35% of both groups in 2008.  The first conclusion to be drawn is that circumstances and the candidate at the top of the ticket (probably in that order) matter most and that Republicans could reasonably hope to somewhat improve over their 2008 performance with both groups – though probably not win a plurality with either group without some kind of huge disaster between now and November.