Paul Ahead in Iowa

. . . while Newt has swooned to third. Romney is in the same damn place he always is. Pete was more right than I was on Newt, although I was an early forcaster of a Paul victory. His organization, enthusiasm and all that might produce a bigger win than the polls now suggest—or Paul may have a kind of ceiling that will keep the race close. The 4-way tie scenario is still on the table, in my view. Meanwhile, it’s important to add, Paul isn’t surging across the nation. He could surge, of course, with the momentum of a convincing Iowa win.

I can’t link it right now, but a national tele-poll of the Tea Partiers showed Newt with only a very narrow lead over Bachmann.