Not Kosovo

Intervention in Syria is being compared to Clinton’s intervention in Kosovo. Robert Kaplan doesn’t think the analogy works, and suggests that Obama’s challenge is far more dangerous than Clinton’s: “Obama faces a dilemma more extreme than the one Clinton faced in Kosovo. If he chooses limited military strikes to send a message against the use of chemical weapons, he risks looking weak, especially following the powerful rhetoric employed by his secretary of state, John Kerry. If he chooses regime change — while not calling it that — he threatens to unleash a jihadi nightmare. He may try a middle option calibrated to seriously erode al Assad’s power base while sending a message to Russia and Iran to help him negotiate a stable transfer of authority in Damascus — something that might yet open up a wider diplomatic process with Iran. But that is obviously very difficult to do.”

Kaplan commends Obama’s Middle East policy, but adds that “Obama now faces a defining event that will test his commitment to keep America out of regional quicksand while being able to wield considerable power in the region at the same time. If Obama prosecutes a significant military operation, one thing is certain: Syria will be its own war for the United States with its own narrative, for better or worse.”