Kansas Second Thought

Santorum won big in Kansas. I don’t think it makes much difference. It is more evidence of Mitt’s evangelical problem that has little to do with the South.

Good Romney stats: He’s up double-digits over Santorum among Republicans and five (in one poll) over Obama.

Good news for Santorum: As Pete says, no new gaffes. And Republicans, at least, believe that the Democrats overplayed their hand in a most deceptive and condescending way on the alleged right to oral contraceptives issue.

Two first-place finishes in Alabama and Mississippi (very possible) might seal the deal for Romney.

Two first-place finishes for Santorum might make March his second month in a row, while still only giving him a ghost of a chance of stopping Romney.

A split finish, especially with Newt winning one, would deprive Rick of momentum without giving much to Mitt.

I hope Newt means it when he says he’ll drop out unless he wins both.

UPDATE: Newt has made it clear he won’t drop out no matter what, and he’s going all the way to Tampa. (See the analysis in the thread by John Lewis and the article on RCP.) It would be best, of course, if Romney and Santorum had a few one-on-ones and just ended this thing. One poll this morning has Santorum down 4—but only 4—to Romney in Illinois, and it’s anyone’s guess how that would change if Newt were to vanish.