Jody correctly notes that Mike Huckabee isn’t getting much credit for his win last night, but I think that’s an analytical mistake. Huckabee is still an underdog. If I had to bet $100 on who wins the nomination, I wouldn’t put it on him.
But Huckabee has done something which people may notice if he does well in New Hampshire ( possible ) and wins South Carolina ( likely ). Which is this: Huckabee has created a position which would be strategically difficult for the Democratic nominee to run against.
Don’t be fooled by the current head-to-head polls showing him losing by double-digits to either Obama or Clinton. That’s based largely on name ID. The problem for Democrats is that they are preparing to campaign against a classic Republican: rich, war-mongering, green eyeshade, skull-and-crossbones, etc. Huckabee is a populist who doesn’t fit any of those themes. Should Huckabee win the nomination, Democrats will have to either (a) figure out a new path to insurgency, or (b) come up with their own ideas. Neither of these things is impossible. But as things stand now, you can imagine the way a Democratic nominee would campaign against Romney, McCain, Giuliani, or Thompson.
Populists pose different sets of problems for Democrats.
