Out of pure laziness, I turn to the emailbox for post fodder:
I’m not angling for a post here, I just really want your thoughts on this stuff. You know how I’m always belaboring the point that an undifferentiated national ballot doesn’t elect a president, 50 individual states do? It’s the same thing with the gay marriage stuff. This dawned on me this morning in reading the WaPo’s spin on the gay marriage amendment in NC. They are quick to point out that overall the numbers in national polling are quickly shifting in favor of gay marriage. That’s all true. But state-by-state, I’m sure you could still pass such an amendment in a majority of states. (Even in California!) In other words, if we were doing gay marriage by electoral college, I’ll bet the anti-gay marriage side would win.That proves absolutely nothing. Except that we all have reason to be terribly alarmed by Obama’s numbers in VA and NC. These are the states to watch. Pity for Romney the gay marriage issue came up in primary season, rather than November.
Also, a funny thought, re Rod Dreher. Maybe he’s pushed the Porcher logic to its conclusion, and he’s re-patriating to his European roots, rather than his American ones.
1. I don’t think gay marriage will play a big role in the election. The small number of enthusiasts on each side will pretty much cancel each other out. Romney and Obama, officially, have identical positions, and so it won’t be a debate issue. There’s a general sense in the country that the issue has already been resolved through the indifference of most young Americans. BUT: The more general issue of the patriarchal intolerance of the Mormons will hurt Romney at least a little among the swing group of faux-sophisticated left libertarians—a young and growing faction. Watch for a significant Gary Johnson vote.
2. The poll numbers from VA and NC aren’t good, and they have nothing to do with same-sex marriage. Still, there’s no reason not to believe that the election will be very close, and finally—as Sean Trende explained—-the electoral vote will very likely mirror the popular vote.
3. The Dreher move to France—although seemingly only for a season or two—might be taken as evidence that Porchers don’t actually like the southerners we actually have these days. American individualism—the willful project of our modern founding—has so infected every nook and cranny of our country that the only thing to do is to flee to the beautiful buildings and other fading reminders of what was the authentically Christian civilization of Europe. It is true that some Porchers think that Evangelicals aren’t really Christian and so think of even the American sticks as a wasteland. And some even think that personal love will emerge again from the ruins of Europe. But all this—inspired by a email from a conservative Catholic woman—probably doesn’t touch what motivates the charming intellectual Crunchy Rod.
