1. Santorum’s speech was a meandering missed opportunity. Again. I’m not a big fan of Michael Gerson, but this Gerson column is right on. Failure to put together a coherent speech is not a virtue. Reagan worked hard at communicating his ideas. Santorum would do well to follow that example.
2. Santorum’s not-so-good speech doesn’t mean much in the short-term. My sense is that a plurality of Republican primary voters in a majority of states want to vote for Santorum and need an affirmative reason to vote against him. They like Santorum and will only vote for Romney if they feel they have to. The polls in Illinois were close before yesterday’s primaries. The positive publicity should move some undecided and Gingrich-leaning voters into the Santorum column. The Romney camp (including the SuperPACs) has plenty of money to run negative ads against Santorum, but I don’t know if they have the time to blanket Illinois in a way that will counteract the positive news that Santorum got from last night. Santorum has a terrific chance to win the popular vote in Illinois, but Santorum’s organizational incompetence means that Romney will do well in delegates.
3. Santorum needs to keep his foot out of his mouth. If he does that, he should be fine for the next week or so. The problem is that, based on past experience, he will let himself get sucked into some low salience argument that drags down his campaign. Maybe it won’t be this week or next, but it will happen.
4. Romney’s spin last night was repulsive. I was watching this Romney minion on television and his message was along the lines of “Foolish Republicans. Your puny votes can’t overcome our delegate lead. The nomination is ours. Mwahahahaha!!!” That delegate math stuff is fine when they are talking to reporters on background about how the race should be covered, but they should shut up about that inevitability stuff when the cameras are on. Projecting arrogant entitlement is a pretty good way to make sure that lots of Republican voters who might be otherwise inclined to unenthusiastically vote for Romney end up giving him an obscene gesture and end up voting Santorum instead.
