Here is a (characteristically) sensible article by Bill Galston in THE NEW REPUBLIC. I quote from its postscript:
This morning, Gallup released the latest in its series of polls focused on twelve swing states—Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Three results stand out. (1) President Obama blows out Newt Gingrich by 14 points in those states (and 12 points nationally). There is no credible evidence that Gingrich would be competitive with the president, let alone a stronger challenger than Romney. (2) Obama and Romney are statistically tied: it’s Romney 48, Obama 47 in the swing states and 48-48 nationally. And most important, (3): despite changes in the political environment, a more aggressive stance by the president, and the emergence of less than flattering information about Mitt Romney, the Obama-Romney contest hasn’t moved much in many months. Last October, for example, Romney led Obama 47-46 in the swing states. Since last August, Obama’s national support has moved in a narrow range between 46 and 48 percent; Romney’s, between 46 and 49 percent. This evidence supports the thesis that the 2012 presidential election will be hard-fought and close—unless there’s significant shift in the trajectory of the economy.
There’s a real stability in the Obama-Romney polling. Gingrich hasn’t hurt or helped Mitt much. The two candidates are tied with respect to competence. The economy probably won’t get better for the rest of the year, but who really knows? Small and unpredictable movements in either direction may well be decisive.
Gingrich gets stomped by Obama because of the character/competence issue, which can’t be fixed through smooth or belligerent talk.
It’s not true that anyone could beat our president. We’ve returned to the 2000/2004 pattern, which, I think, is our normal pattern now. Because of his high competence rating, Mitt is a good candidate. Not great: He lacks the charismatic and ideological dimensions that produce big victories. Our president has or used to have the charisma, but his ideology has been semi-discredited and his competence is perceived as questionable.
