I really hope Peter is right that I’m wrong about Gingrich’s chances for a comeback. But . . . Gingrich had a mostly attractive performance on Saturday (especially when he went after the moderators - who deserved his scorn this time), and he nailed Romney on Sunday. If Gingrich can nip Santorum tomorrow and finish ahead of Santorum in South Carolina, there is going to be a movement of some non-Romney voters back to Gingrich as we head into the later states. I say this as a guy who can’t stand what Gingrich has become.
But I don’t think Gingrich comes all the way back. A big part of his comeback is that the critical scrutiny from the media and the attacks from the other candidates have moved off of him in the last ten days or so. As Gingrich rises, Romney and Romney’s allies will turn their fire back on him. Gingrich’s opportunistic attacks on Bain Capital might do him some short-term good, but as Romney reorients himself, the Gingrich Bain Capital attacks make it easier to paint Gingrich as a Washington insider politicians who only knows and likes a business when it is a government sponsored entity that his paying him big bucks to shill for government favors.
Santorum needs some kind of mutual assured destruction between Gingrich and Romney. If Gingrich isn’t bogged down in defending the indefensible, he just comes off better than Santorum (and I hate it, but I gotta call it like I see it.) If Romney knocks Gingrich back off stride, and Romney keeps taking hits, Santorum can benefit by looking more principled than the other two (which would actually be true) and getting less critical scrutiny as the media covers the food fight between Romney and Gingrich (boys, boys, you’re both pro-mandate, pro cap-and-trade, frauds.)
