Like Peter says below, Gingrich’s support is falling fast. PPP now has him at third and he is closer to being in sixth place than first. According to Insider Advantage, Gingrich has fallen to fourth behind Rick Perry, but that poll hasn’t gotten much play so maybe there is a problem with that firm that I don’t know about. This is obviously bad news for Gingrich, but I think he is starting to find a groove on liberal judges. The dynamics of public opinion and the 2/3 rule for removal of federal judges are such that removing judges for banning mention of God at school assemblies or ruling against the Pledge of Allegiance is very unlikely. But that isn’t the point. Gingrich’s points are:
1. I’m on your side!
2. I have a plan!
3. Yes we can!
It is a powerful narrative and Gingrich is eloquent and passionate when he sells it. He got to this issue first, he has the best rap, and there is no policy space to his right. This is the kind of issue and policy agenda with which he can recover his populist, visionary, crusader, authenticity-conservative mojo. I’m not sure (I rather doubt actually) that this can overcome all the negative ads (which are based in truth), his campaign disorganization, and the negative horserace stories about his support imploding, but the judges story is the first pro-Gingrich message in weeks that has found traction in the media that hasn’t been based on momentum and illusions about his invincibility as a debater.
I’m not betting on Gingrich coming all the way back. There are only two weeks for him to turn around the narrative, there are no more debates and the media is looking for the next big thing. I’m also not totally sold on Paul (politically I mean - I’m no supporter as a matter of policy.) He is getting a good dose of serious and critical center-right scrutiny. If any one of Perry/Bachmann/Santorum sneak into the top three, they are going to be huge story on caucus night and they could be the next anti-Romney for a while. There might even be enough support there to push one of them into first place if one of them gets really hot in the next week. The Family Leader endorsement tomorrow could be huge in creating a sense of momentum around one of them (if one of them gets the endorsement.)
