So the one thing the debate showed last night is that Newt won’t be touched significantly by any of the existing evidence about his interesting past—including how he’s been earning his living over the last decacde—any time soon.
Anyone who doesn’t think he’s somewhere between the strong favorite and the likely nominee isn’t facing up to the sorry facts (sorry, Pete, I hope and pray you’re right). Newt still might implode at any moment, but he seems relatively disciplined at the moment.
All the chatter about a candidate entering later and most of the delegates being chosen down the road seems like the desperate and ineffectual talk we’ve heard before in recent campaigns. If Newt wins Iowa, NH, and SC, he’s in. He could even easily endure a narrow loss in NH.
One thing that could CONCEIVABLY slow Newt down: A Ron Paul upset in Iowa. That has to be regarded as possible, given his excellent organization and the intense devotion of his supporters. So if I lived in Iowa (insert Iowa joke here), I would think, at least, of caucusing on behalf of a man who has no business being president to stop a man who has no business being president.
That’s how things are, even before anyone has voted.
Notice how this post says nothing about Romney. Mitt’s given it his best shot and deserves better, but . . . Notice also that it doesn’t say anything about Bachmann and Perry, who won’t rise from the dead. I’m touched by the sorrow of Santorum that’s mostly replaced his anger, but it would be a near-miracle if he were to catch on at this point.
There’s more (unfortunately): After reading George Will this morning on the plausibility (short of likelihood) at this point of a Ron Paul’s third-party run, it occurs to me that the Gingrich nomination would give Paul the best conceivable excuses for running. They begin with Newt’s aggressive foreign policy pronouncements, beginning with Secretary of State Bolton. Imagine the pleasure, as Carl reminded us in a thread, of having to choose among Gingrich, Obama, and Paul in November.
