or the soft bigotry of low expectations,
1. One of the themes of this Republican presidential race is the tension between electability/competence on one hand and conservative authenticity on the other. Romney has been winning the competence/electability sweepstakes all year (minus a couple of weeks when Rick Perry just jumped in.) The action has all been on the authenticity side as one candidate after another has taken on the role of “real” conservative alternative to Romney.
2. Gingrich has been making gains on the authenticity side with his debate performances and especially his attacks on the liberal, biased stupid, dishonest, etc. media. He also has a superficially compelling rap about what a serious, radical, transformative guy he is (though it often adds up to “hey, rather than talk about the right-wing social engineering Ryan budget, let’s talk a big game about cutting fraud!”) It won’t last. If this were the week before the Iowa Caucuses, Gingrich would be riding his current momentum to victory, but, like Herman Cain before him, Gingrich is peaking too early given his many vulnerabilities. We still have a month and a half in which people will be hearing about how he was for a federal health insurance purchase mandate (hey, isn’t that unconstitutional?) , and cap-and-trade , and how he took Freddie Mac lucre to be a (*cough*) historian . . . er . . . strategic advisor. He could probably talk his way out of these problems if it was in the interest of the other Republican candidates to let him off the hook. But the incentives are now there for the other right-of-Romney candidates to go at Gingrich and validate media criticisms of him as another Washington sellout flip/flopper.
3. One of the unexpected beneficiaries of this incredibly weak and weird Republican field had been Ron Paul. Paul is polling in the top tier in Iowa and at the top of the second tier in New Hampshire. Paul’s support is clearly growing well beyond his base. I think this is largely a consequence of how the authenticity portion of the Republican race is playing out. The two current leaders in the Republican authenticity primary (Cain and Gingrich) are grifters. Paul might have some major ideological differences with the median conservative, but Paul does represent a certain kind of rightist integrity (especially if you haven’t read the stories about his old newsletters.) No one doubts he really is for cutting government spending. He knows more stuff than Cain and is more trustworthy than Gingrich. He knows what he thinks about the Libya operation. He was against it and he can tell you why (if you have the time he’ll’ tell you why he was against US entry into WWII [edit: Paul was for entry into WWII my error - Pete.] ) He never put himself on the payroll of a rent seeking mortgage company. He didn’t put himself on the payroll of the federal subsidy seeking ethanol lobby and then try to weasel his way out of admitting the business relationship. Paul never insulted the universe’s intelligence by telling us that government sponsored mortgage companies pay retired politicians $300,000 to be company historians. Ron Paul is wrong on a bunch of stuff, but he isn’t grotesquely ignorant and he isn’t for sale. In this race, that counts for something. It looks like some fraction of authenticity-oriented conservatives are settling for Paul as their fourth choice after cycling through Bachmann, Perry, and Cain.
4. I think Rich Santorum will have his day. He has his problems. He comes across whiny (more questions please!), hostile, and a little tongue tied during the debates. But he is also pretty representative of the conventional economic, social, and strong national defense conservative (though probably too interventionist for the political moment.) He didn’t adopt his policy preferences sometime after 2006. He knows policy. He has addressed wage stagnation and income mobility. There is no reason to doubt that he believes the things he says. He cares enough about his principles to have actually thought about them. He is the authentically authentic guy and I think it will show before the real votes are counted.
Update: Thanks to commentor Hank Reardon for pointing out that Ron Paul is in favor of US entry into WWII. It has been fixed above. I’ve also added a link to what I’ve written about the Ron Paul budget.
