Pete’s analysis below is precisely right.
That means that Perry has flunked his screen test.
Romney’s performances remain cool and competent, but he still doesn’t surge.
There’s room for another candidate—lots of room. But the odds are against getting one we can really use.
There are plenty of reasons why if the cameras really turned to Newt as a serious alternative he’d melt.
If you’re in one mood, you can say that Obama is weak enough that anyone could beat him. But actually no one in particular is beating him right now.
There are plenty of reasons to admire Cain. And he is surging, maybe even more than the poll suggests. Pete is right that the powerful argument against the 9-9-9 plan is that it would be a big tax increase for the middle middle-class, those Americans who often didn’t go to college and whose lives are becoming increasingly precarious and pathological. The Cain plan takes out the family-friendly character of Bush tax cut. Isn’t that unjust? Given that our entitlement crisis is really a demographic crisis, shouldn’t we say that people who have kids deserve a break in their taxes because of the indispensable contribution they’re making to our country’s future? Some people contribute money, others productive members of society.
Democrats will scream about the tax increase on the bottom 60% of Americans, and the point some conservatives make about the injustice of about half of the country not paying income taxes is not one that will resonate in a general election campaign. I think Cain would be an easy mark for Obama, who at this point won’t run on his record but on his comparative superiority to his opponent. I could, of course, be wrong here.
But the TEA PARTIERS are excited about the justice of a consumption or “fair” tax, and it might be tough for Romney to be tough with Cain on the tax front during the primary campaign. It might be tough for Romney to take on Cain in general.
Cain’s screen test, as Pete says, has just begun. The campaign so far—like the last day of the baseball season—has been full of surprises.
