A leading conservative woman sent me this email in response to my Perry’c probably won’t win thing:
I agree that it will be a close election, no matter what. I agree that Obama is still well liked, even while people are beginning to think, “Ya know, he’s just not good at this whole President job . . . ”Here’s the bedrock of my disagreement, such as it is. One of the features of political commentary in this country that drives me insane is that we pretend everyone’s vote matters, and we pretend generic nationwide polling matters. It doesn’t. PARTICULARLY if Perry is the R nominee, there are approximately five or six states that will matter - Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida Nevada, etc. You can take all of the Southern states off the board and drop them in the R bank off the bat. (This, incidentally, is why I think Perry is a way better candidate than Romney - the Southern states emphatically AREN’T in the bank for Romney, the same way they weren’t for McCain.) So, the question really is, can Perry be competitive in those five or six big swing states? Well, it may ultimately depend on redneck turnout. But there are plenty of rednecks in Ohio, PA, FL, and MI.
Anyway, I take a much more crunch-the-numbers perspective when it comes to presidential elections than I do to forecasts about the zeitgeist of this or that demographic. It just plain doesn’t matter WHO you are, it matters WHERE you are.
And for the record, I live in Super Tuesday country, and I’m voting for Perry. (Unless Jeb jumps into the race.)
