Here are some thoughts by a thoughtful social scientist on our next national election. I hate to taint the refined pages of postmodern conservatism with mere partisan politics and empty political speculation. Still, there are as many Democrats in Republican leaning districts as there were in 1994; the president’s approval ratings are similar now to those of the early Clinton; independent voters, in particular, have turned against him, and the electorate will be whiter and more elderly than it was in 2008. And there’s an obvious reason why the old—far more than the young—are both distrustful of and animated by the prospect of health care reform. So the election MIGHT be a disaster for the Democrats. BUT if 2010 is all about economic recovery, then the above factors won’t make that much difference, and the Democrats might actually gain more seats. Swing voters are less partisan than anxious right now, and so voting will be more about pocketbooks and security than usual.
This time, more than usual, predicting the election is about predicting the economy, and none of the experts inspire my confidence on that front right now. As many of our threaders have complained, though, the Republicans have some margin for affecting the outcome by seeming smarter and more like statespersons. But the competence issues many have with them can only be dealt with effectly by the introduction of new Republican blood into Congress. Those who want the Republicans to be better—a more effective and respectable opposition—really want newer Republicans. So they should vote accordingly.
