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Sabato on Where We Are Now

From First Thoughts

1. Larry is as nonpartisan as analysts can be these days. 2. The debate, I think, was, from a debating expert’s point of view, a victory for the president. But in terms of changing minds, it was a tie. That probably means the erosion of Romney’s new slight advantage on the enthusiasm . . . . Continue Reading »

Candy and Fact Checking on Libya

From First Thoughts

It turns out Mitt was right , but he probably won’t carry the media day. Bobby Jindal is trying with great force to correct the record on CNN right now. Republicans need to fight hard on the spin circuit on this. In general, Obama was between energetic and angry, as opposed to listless and . . . . Continue Reading »

The VP Debate

From First Thoughts

Biden more confident but excessively rude. He finally got control of his randomly smirking face very late in the game. Ryan really wasn’t bad but lacked authority, especially on foreign policy. He did have a mastery of many details about Afghanistan, but there’s no denying that Biden . . . . Continue Reading »

So Pete Was Right

From First Thoughts

Today’s studies show that Romney ‘mo from the debate has come to an end. The result: Everything everywhere seems to be well within the margin of error, and the national polls really are all just one percent one way or the other. Romney arguably has a microscopic lead, but it . . . . Continue Reading »

Arrogance, Humility, and the President

From First Thoughts

1. I admit it. I’m more indulgent toward the president than many conservatives, including Carl. 2. So the president didn’t study for his debate, preferring to visit the Hoover Dam instead. Is that arrogant? Sure. But we can see how Romney tricked him into complacency with his rather . . . . Continue Reading »

Today’s Polls

From First Thoughts

Fairly interpreted give Romney a very narrow but real lead. He also picked up Colorado on the no-tie chart. It goes without saying that I was mocking the dramatic Andrew S. below. The election is too close to call, and the Obama campaign remains the better campaign. But the big mo’ is with . . . . Continue Reading »