Peter Lawler

I’m afraid that the outcome doesn’t fit into one of Jim’s four categories. The narrow popular victory—when enhanced by the electoral college semi-landslide and winning almost all the battlegrounds—probably does reach mandate level in at least one way: Nothing that the . . . . Continue Reading »

Here is Romney’s achievement: He turned North Carolina and Indiana, the two states that Obama unexpectedly and narrowly carried in 2008. This election stands out in coming singularly close to reproducing the result of the previous election. BIG THOUGHTS HERE! Link fixed! . . . . Continue Reading »

1. Pete was right again. Henry Olsen nailed it: Non-evangelical white blue collar voters in the MIDWEST and Latino voters were the difference. And those two groups are a big reason why the electorate identified as more Democratic than Republicans thought. The polls in general, as I thought, nailed . . . . Continue Reading »

PA wasn’t close. OH not going well. . . . . Continue Reading »

Good: The Republicans now think they will carry VA, NC, and FL. BUT given how much of the Broward vote is out, they might be wrong on FL Bad: Michigan wasn’t even close, and that, of course, doesn’t bode well for the MIDWESTERN hopes in general. Straw grasping: The exit poll has Romney . . . . Continue Reading »

1. The exit polls—which are obviously of very questionable accuracy—show all the battleground states to be battleground states. The bad news is that Romney could lose them all, the good is that he could conceivably win enough to squeak by. 2. The FL numbers are now officially troubling . . . . Continue Reading »

1. Last-minute deciders go for Obama. So much for the surge against the incumbent theory. 2. Obama got lots of Sandy credit. 3. Fox guys whining like they’ve lost. 4. Romney maybe in trouble in FL, although discouraging totals may come mostly from early voting. 5. PA and OH don’t look . . . . Continue Reading »

So says Bob Dylan . Bob wouldn’t endorse the president, but he is willing to say he’s confident he’ll win big. The real reason for this post, of course, is to the psych Carl out with the headline. I’ve heard a few random things that may or may not be right. . . . . Continue Reading »

So to get your mind over the election, I thought I’d post more from my BYU talk on the Christian view of the family. This is in the form of a speculative draft, and so I welcome your comments and criticisms. St. Augustine ranks the personal satisfactions of the family, despite their . . . . Continue Reading »

That Henry Olsen article linked by Pete is the most penetrating account of the election’s likely outcome I’ve seen. Olsen ends up agreeing with the RCP no-tie number (and more or less Nate Silver’s number) for Obama—303 electoral votes. He also explains what we already knew: . . . . Continue Reading »