Pete Spiliakos

So I’ll be fast. 1. Maybe there aren’t as many missing voters as Sean Trende thinks. Figuring where Romney underperformed with whites (not his biggest problem), will have to wait until more of the votes are counted. According to the exit polls Romney won white voters by 59% to 39% for . . . . Continue Reading »

1.  Obama’s popular vote total ended up tracking his RCP job approval average very closely.  That’s why I always thought it would be tough for Romney to win as long as Obama’s job approval was between 49%-50%. 2.  I blew the call on Scott Brown.  The Obama tide . . . . Continue Reading »

Romney had his flaws.  A lot will be written about his flaws, flubs and tactical errors - some of it by me.  But he is a decent guy who put together a well funded and technically competent campaign.  The median voter likely believes that Romney is a competent executive.  The . . . . Continue Reading »

But not because I expect a Romney win or anything.  I’m just at peace with the situation.  Either the aggregate of the polls in the swing states got the turnout model right or it didn’t.  Either there is a hidden Romney vote (hardly anybody is going to call you a bigot . . . . Continue Reading »

Depressing from Henry Olsen.   It becomes only slightly less depressing if Romney pulls out a narrow win. Update: I do think that Olsen is a teensy bit too pessimistic.  My totally unscientific, gut instinct, just-talking-to-people sense is that Scott Brown will win tomorrow. . . . . Continue Reading »

1. Romney will win by a landslide - in the demographic America of 1980. I don’t know what happens in the country we’re actually living in. My guess is a narrow Obama win but I wouldn’t bet my own money on it. 2. Ross Douthat wrote a terrific (and fair!) appreciation of Romney. . . . . Continue Reading »

So here is the RCP link and now for a few quick thoughts, 1.  Obama has pulled ahead by .4% in the RCP head-to-head polling average. 2.  Obama’s average job approval rating is 49.9%.  So I ask one more time, which group is likely to be larger, Obama approvers who vote for . . . . Continue Reading »

I’m too lazy to even link much. 1.  Romney has lost is lead in the RCP head-to-head poll average.  Obama is ahead by .1% so call it a tie.  Obama’s job approval is just about 50%.  Obama is leading in most but not all of the swing state polls. 2.  Ross Douthat . . . . Continue Reading »

1. Ramesh Ponnuru makes a realistic and thoughtful case for Romney. I would add that I don’t for a second trust Romney’s instincts on judicial appointments. If he becomes President, Romney will already have plenty of fights with the left-of-center related to the related issues of the . . . . Continue Reading »

1. So Romney is still up by .8% in the RCP head-to-head, but Obama’s average job approval has rebounded to 49.7% from its weekend low of around 48%. So we’re back to wondering if the remaining undecideds will break in the direction of the challenger or the direction of the . . . . Continue Reading »